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GTA Q3-2023 Condo Market Report

Posted by Editor on December 19, 2023
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New Condo Sales Rose but Remained Some of the Lowest on Record

With pre-construction condo lots in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in the third quarter of 2023 and a still-volatile market, much will be revealed in the coming months. The market in the third quarter was difficult. Interest rates remained high in the last quarter, and sales rose from the previous quarter, but remained relatively low, keeping the market sluggish.

Due to the decline in active buyers, new apartment construction slowed sharply and prices continued to fall. Urbanation, the GTA’s leading source of statistics, data and analysis for the condo market, has released its latest report containing valuable information for investors. View data from Q3 2023 to dig deeper into the industry with insights and awareness.

 

Key points:

  • A total of 9,568 condo units have been sold year-to-date (the lowest level

 in 10 years), down 47% from the same period in 2022.

  • A total of 2,491 units launched for presale in Q3-2023, down 23% annually.
  • The average asking price for remaining unsold new condominiums in the GTA was $1,413 psf. This marked a decrease of 3% annually from the record high in Q3-2022 ($1,449 psf).
  • Construction activity in Q3 dropped with starts falling to a more than 10-year low of 1,798 units.
  • In the resale market, average prices decreased 1.2% annually to $881 psf – down 11% from the Q1-2022 high

of $987 psf.

 

 

Sales of new apartments in the third quarter increased significantly compared to last year (41%). However, this positive step should be taken with some caution. 

In the third quarter of 2022, sales in the completed apartment market decreased. The decline was driven by aggressive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, which caused buyers to pull back. Consequently, while sales volume increased in the third quarter of 2023, condo sales volume in the third quarter was the second lowest in 20 years. Sales growth improved last quarter, but the market is still recovering. 

 

Urbanation says low new launches last summer and high interest rates contributed to the decline in sales last quarter. In the third quarter of 2023, only 2,491 units were sold, down 23% from the same period last year. This figure is 41% lower than the 10-year average for the third quarter.

 

 

When it comes to new apartment construction and completions, GTA statistics paint a unique picture.

The total number of condominium projects under construction fell slightly from 343 projects to 322 projects compared to the previous year, which may not be surprising. But data from Urbanation shows that construction starts fell sharply in the last quarter compared to a year ago. The number of starts varied from 12,500 to less than 1,800. This is the lowest number of new apartments since 2014.

On the other hand, it should be remembered that the start of construction peaked a year ago. The recent decline has shown that the market is correcting, but the change has been dramatic.

The number of completed projects increased significantly year-on-year, from 1,965 to 4,776 completed in the third quarter of 2023.

 

 

Overall, pre-construction condo prices in the GTA declined over the past quarter. The average new product sales price in the third quarter of 2023 was the lowest in two years, down 18% from the record high in the third quarter of 2022. Urbanation says this is partly due to fewer downtown locations.

The majority (57%) of sales this year were in the 905 area, with an average sale price of $1,161 psf. In contrast, the average price of new builds sold in the city of Toronto is $1,383 psf.

Asking prices of the remaining stocks fell an average of 2.5% last year. High development costs and a good sales market will both play a role.

 

 

New launches in Q3-2023 were found as follows in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA):

 

  • Toronto (3): Park Road, Reside On Richmond, BLVD. Q
  • Markham (2): 46 On Main, Unionville Condos
  • Vaughan and King City (2): Bravo Festival – West Tower, King Heights Residences
  • Pickering (1): Pickering City Centre – Tower 1
  • Milton (1): Thompson Towers – Tower 1
  • Burlington & Hamilton (3): No. 35 Plains Road, Rebecca Condos, 1107 Main Condos

 

Like pre-completion condo prices, resale prices continued to fall in the third quarter of 2023. September resales fell to a ten-year low, according to the latest data. This was a quarterly decline of 2.8% and continued a decline seen in five of the past six quarters. 

 

Resale prices are down 11% since Q3 2023, from a peak of $987 psf in Q1 2022, with a price adjustment of $106 per year. This means that as of Q3 2023, 97% of new apartments in the implementation phase have been presold at an average price of $875 psf. 

 

This is 14% lower than the average resale price of listed buildings over the past three years. Urbanation predicts that short-term risks will increase in the future, reaching below presale prices. However, these changes should be limited. 93% of the additional apartments scheduled for completion in the second half of 2024 were sold at an average price of $1,061 psf. 

 

This was 5% above the current resale market value. What are your future plans? Urbanation predicts that apartment resale prices will decrease in the future. This is because more homeowners are selling due to significant increases in mortgage costs.

 

Message for Investors

What is the overall conclusion? Higher interest rates and increased market uncertainty continued to dominate the GTA’s new condo scene in the third quarter. According to Urbanation, the supply of new apartments continues to improve, but absorption rates remain below normal, which is not ideal. Some new products launched at competitive prices have been successful. However, many projects have failed to provide the economic evidence to sustain themselves in today’s market.

With new home sales expected to continue to decline, construction starts are also expected to be delayed. This could help support new apartment price growth due to new supply constraints, but remains to be seen. Change is happening and being informed will help you make the best investment decisions.

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